A P O P H I S
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The End of Earth
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Video Link: Apophis 99942: The Killer Asteroid of 2036
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Neil deGrasse Tyson: Asteroid May Collide with Earth in 2029.
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"fora.tv — Astrophysicist Neal deGrasse Tyson predicts that 99942. Apophis, a near-
Earth asteroid and the namesake of an evil demon in Egyptian mythology, may collide
with Earth in April 2029. After a plunge into the Pacific, he says Apophis would create a
tsunami "that ablates the entire coastline, wiping it clean of all traces of civilization."
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What do you think about Predicting Apophis' Earth Encounters in 2029 and 2036 ?
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“Researchers at NASA/JPL, Caltech, and Arecibo Observatory have released the results of radar
observations of the potentially hazardous asteroid 99942 Apophis, along with an in-depth analysis
of its motion. The research will affect how and when scientists measure, predict, or consider
modifying the asteroid's motion. The paper has been accepted for publication in the science
journal "Icarus" and was presented at the AAS/DPS conference in Orlando, Florida in October of
2007. The Apophis study was led by Jon Giorgini, a senior analyst in JPL's Solar System
Dynamics group and member of the radar team that observed Apophis.
The analysis of Apophis previews situations likely to be encountered with NEAs yet to be
discovered: a close approach that is not dangerous (like Apophis in 2029) nonetheless close
enough to obscure the proximity and the danger of a later approach (like Apophis in 2036) by
amplifying trajectory prediction uncertainties caused by difficult-to-observe physical
characteristics interacting with solar radiation as well as other factors.
BACKGROUND
Upon its discovery in 2004, Apophis was briefly estimated to have a 2.7% chance of impacting
the Earth in 2029. Additional measurements later showed there was no impact risk at that time
from the 210-330 meter (690-1080 foot) diameter object, identified spectroscopically as an Sq
type similar to LL chondritic meteorites. However, there will be a historically close approach to
the Earth, estimated to be a 1 in 800 year event (on average, for an object of that size).
Arecibo Radar Image of Apophis
Apophis Position Uncertainty
The Arecibo planetary radar telescope subsequently detected the asteroid at distances of 27-40
million km (17-25 million miles; 0.192-0.268 AU) in 2005 and 2006. Polarization ratios indicate
Apophis appears to be smoother than most NEAs at 13-cm scales. Including the high precision
radar measurements in a new orbit solution reduced the uncertainty in Apophis' predicted location
in 2029 by 98%.
While trajectory knowledge was substantially corrected by the Arecibo data, a small estimated
chance of impact (less than 1 in 45,000 using standard dynamical models) remained for April 13,
2036. With Apophis probably too close to the Sun to be measured by optical telescopes until
2011, and too distant for useful radar measurement until 2013, the underlying physics of Apophis'
motion were considered to better understand the hazard.”
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Herald & Review.com
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Internet Source: http://digg.com/space/Neil_deGrasse_Tyson_Asteroid_May_Collide_with_Earth_in_2029
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There's no escaping his scope: Charleston man tracks dangerous asteroids for NASA
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By TONY REID - H&R Staff Writer
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CHARLESTON - Sleep tight: Robert E. Holmes Jr. is keeping watch.
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"While we're all safely tucked in bed, he has cranked back the roof on his backyard observatory
in the sticks near Charleston. He then gets busy photographing the heavens While we're all safely
tucked in bed, he has cranked back the roof on his backyard using supercooled cameras - it
makes them work better - that he's strapped to a 2-ton telescope with a 32-inch mirror he built
himself.
Holmes hunts the heavens via computer and scans for telltale moving smudges of light; and
maybe one day, one of those smudges just might turn out to be the cosmic bullet with Earth's
name on it.
This variety of celestial firepower consists of "killer asteroids," which sounds like something for
which you need industrial strength Preparation H, but is much worse. Asteroids are bits of rock
ranging in size from pebbles to a 950-mile-long one called "Ceres," and they careen around our
solar system like stray bullets.
Holmes says these things actually travel at speeds 21 times faster than a rifle shot, and any space
rock about a mile wide that strikes Earth will hit hard enough to leave all mankind sleeping the Big
Sleep. Scientists believe the last time this happened was 55 million years ago, just when T-Rex
and the dinosaur ensemble had been on a roll.
Then, bang. Game over.
So when the next Earth-killer asteroid lines up for its apocalyptic trajectory, it would be nice to
see it coming. Which brings us back to Holmes and the telescope he painted deep red because he
likes the color. The fire engine paint scheme also imparts a sense of urgency, which Holmes says
isn't misplaced.
"To give you a for-instance, in 2029 an 897-foot wide asteroid called 'Apophis' is going to swing
past," says the 53-year-old astronomer.
"And it is going to pass so close, it will come between the Earth and the satellites you get
DirectTV off of."
Yikes.
But Holmes remains optimistic. He believes that if a killer asteroid can be spotted while it is still,
say, 50 to 100 years away, it will give NASA enough time to head it off at the solar pass, as it
were. He talks of "gravity tractor" concepts, using gravity-generating probes to tug
Earth-trajectory rocks onto new courses. Or intercepting asteroids with spacecraft using nuclear
blasts to nudge their targets off in safer directions. It sounds Hollywood, but Holmes says it's
solid, feasible stuff.
"And I hope I do find one of those asteroids," he says. "Because then we'll have plenty of time to
do something about it. If we can't find the one that's heading toward us, that's when we're in
trouble."
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Internet Source: http://www.herald-review.com/articles/2009/05/18/news/local/1041264.txt
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